Tuesday, September 12, 2006

BREAKING: Harold Ford Jr. Leads Bob Corker In New Survey USA Poll

Well folks, we have a new leader in this United States Senate race and his name is Congressman Harold Ford Jr.

It looks as though the Congressman's solutions oriented campaign is resonating with people all around Tennessee as he has surged ahead of Bob Corker in the new Survey USA poll:

From Survey USA:

Tennessee voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Bob Corker? Democrat Harold Ford Jr.? Or some other candidate?

45% Corker (R)
48% Ford (D)
1% Other
6% Undecided

Black Turnout May Decide Fierce Senate Fight Between Corker and Ford: In an election for United States Senator from Tennessee today, 9/12/06, Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. and Republican Bob Corker are locked in a fierce fight, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBIR-TV Knoxville. 8 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Ford gets 48% and Corker gets 45%. The outcome is within the poll's 4.0% margin of sampling error. Ford gets 85% of Democrat votes. Corker gets 81% of Republican votes. Independents prefer Ford, 53% to 40%. Black turnout is critical to the outcome of this contest. Corker leads by 5 among whites, who make up 86% of TN Likely Voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Ford, an African American, leads by 69 points among black voters, who make up 11% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. A higher black turnout helps Ford, possibly just enough to elect him. A lower black turnout helps Corker. There is a 17-point Gender Gap: Corker leads by 6 among males. Ford leads by 11 among females. Ford leads in Western TN by 24 points and in Middle TN by 4 points. Corker leads by 9 points in Eastern TN. Ford leads 2:1 in Urban areas. Corker leads by 3 points in the suburbs and by 7 points in rural areas. Incumbent Republican Senator Bill Frist is not running for re-election. This open seat is critical for the Democrats' hopes of regaining control of the U.S. Senate.

Filtering: 1,200 Tennessee adults were interviewed 9/9/06 - 9/11/06. Of them, 1,014 were registered to vote. Of them, 638 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

A new generation of leadership is coming folks! Get ready!