There is a wide-open race in Tennessee for the seat left open by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who is retiring after two terms and pondering a 2008 bid for president.And campaign donors have lavished a combined total of more than $10 million on the four leading candidates to succeed Frist: Three well-known Republicans — former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, former Rep. Van Hilleary (1995-2003) and former Rep. Ed Bryant (1995-2003) — and one Democrat, Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr., who is solidly favored over his Aug. 3 primary opponent, state Sen. Rosalind Kurita.
Ford is aiming for a dual achievement: restoring political momentum to the Democrats in a Southern state where they long dominated but have slipped badly, and becoming the only the fourth popularly elected black senator — and the first from anywhere in the South.
Tennessee’s partisan drift was confirmed in 2000, when Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore lost his home state to George W. Bush by 4 percentage points; Gore would have won the White House had he held the state that he represented in the House and Senate before serving as vice president.
But Democrats — at least the moderate-to-conservative variety — still are competitive in the state. Democrat Phil Bredesen is favored this year for a second term as governor; his party controls the state House and five of the state’s nine U.S. House seats.
And the decreased support nationally for Bush and Republicans in Congress evidenced in polls this year could provide an unusually ripe opportunity for Ford to make a breakthrough.
“In normal elections with normal candidates in Tennessee, Republicans would win,” said political scientist Bruce Oppenheimer of Nashville’s Vanderbilt University. “But there are a lot of things which we don’t know, and national things don’t look good for Republicans at this point in 2006.”
Ford is in his fifth term in the House representing the Memphis-based 9th, a black-majority district where he has always won easily. Seeking to craft a centrist image, Ford is a member of several groups of conservative-to-moderate lawmakers, including the New Democrat Coalition and the “Blue Dogs,” and he voted to give Bush the authority to go to war in Iraq.
Ford has become a potent fundraiser. His latest report showed receipts of $3.1 million through the end of December. A spokeswoman for Ford said just more than $1 million in additional receipts are being transferred from Ford’s House campaign account, bringing his total to $4.25 million.
But this hefty sum was trumped by Republican candidate Corker, who raised $4.7 million. This put him well ahead of the other GOP candidates: Hilleary and Bryant each raised $1.4 million.
The Republican contest is largely a battle of over which of the contestants is the most conservative. Hilleary and Bryant, who are friends, were called “ideological twins” by Hilleary spokeswoman Jennifer Coxe.
Hilleary and Bryant both are portraying the better-financed Corker as not faithful enough to conservative orthodoxy on fiscal issues while questioning his anti-abortion credentials. Bryant’s camp has even suggested that the two unite — behind Bryant, naturally — to stop Corker from winning.
“We hope that Van Hilleary decides to run for governor again or simply lives to fight another day,” said Bryant press secretary Andrew Shulman.
Corker’s camp rejects the criticisms. “All three candidates are pro-life, all three support [gun rights], all signed the pledge for no new taxes. What differs are background and experience,” said Corker campaign manager Ben Mitchell.
Ford, meanwhile, has campaigned steadily since May 2005 in a contest for which he has been preparing for years. His desire to move upward was evident three years ago, at the start of the 108th Congress, when he ran against Democrat Nancy Pelosi of California for House minority leader. Pelosi won easily, but Ford rebounded and gained national Democratic Party support for his Senate bid.
“[Ford] can certainly raise enough money,” said Oppenheimer. “Whether he can win or not is another question. It all depends on who comes out of the [Republican] primary.”
CQ rates the general election race as Leans Republican.
Source: Congressional Quarterly
