"A year is a lifetime in politics." Is there a more overused cliché in our business these days? We decided to take the line literally and highlight 10 races -- five that have moved up on our watch list and five that have moved down -- that have dramatically changed from what we and others thought a year ago.To emphasize, these two lists of five races each are simply those battles which have risen or fallen the most in our heads depending on how seriously we take them. It doesn't mean that we think, for instance, that some incumbent's re-election campaign that makes our "top five" on our "movin' on up" list is going to lose... it just means we think the race is a lot more competitive than we thought it would be a year ago (see Virginia). And it also doesn't mean that because we've moved some race down we don't think the "out" party has a reasonable shot (see Michigan). It's all about the campaigns defying the expectations that we set for a year ago.
OK, had to get out the caveat even though some irresponsible campaign will still take something we write about one of them and twist our words a bit… (this means you, campaign X!)
Movin' On Up! -- Five races that appear more competitive now than a year ago:
4. Tennessee Senate: A year ago, the conventional wisdom on this race was, when is Harold Ford (D) going to get out and when is Bill Frist (R) going to clear the field for Bob Corker (R)? Fast-forward a year and Ford's entrenched as one of the five best-funded Senate challengers on the Democratic side, and Corker's still fending off two conservative primary challengers in Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant. Whoever comes out of the GOP primary is going to be bloodied, but will they be bloodied enough for Ford to pull off the upset? State Republicans are confident any of their three candidates can beat Ford because of his family baggage. We'll see -- Ford's been very good at distancing himself from the latest circus involving his aunt.
Source: The National Journal
Comments: Chuck Todd joins a growing list of political experts and others that each agree that Harold Ford Jr. is for real and can win the 2006 Senate race here in Tennessee!
To view what other pundits have to say about Congressman Ford and his candidacy, click the following links! (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9)
