Friday, January 27, 2006

Larry Sabato says Tennessee Senate Seat Vunerable for Republicans

"It will be a surprise if 2006 is not a Democratic year, with the only question being how Democratic. After all, this is the fabled sixth-year election of the Bush presidency (read more in the Crystal Ball's look at the Sixth Year Itch in the Senate), and President Bush has been in deep trouble on a host of subjects, from Iraq to Katrina to scandal. Presidential popularity is an overarching key to the 2006 results. The current betting is that Bush will be below 50 percent come November, but who knows? He could be at 35 percent or 55 percent by then, and it is easy to construct scenarios that would produce either result as events in the New Year unfold."

"Majority Leader Bill Frist's retirement in Tennessee gives Democrats a shot at an open seat. The evaluations on this contest vary wildly, depending on the identity of the eventual GOP nominee in a three-way primary contest. Congressman Harold Ford, an African-American, will be the Democratic candidate, and his chances depend in part on how divisive the Republican primary turns out to be, as well as how conservative the GOP nominee is."

Comments: The Republican primary has already turned very nasty and divisive. Case in point, this post on Blogging for Bryant Thursday.

Can you say Senator Harold Ford Jr.?

Related: Read what other political players are saying about Congressman Ford and his candidacy by clicking the following links! (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9)