On Tuesday, Rasmussen polling released a poll that showed Congressman Harold Ford Jr. either beating or being in a statistical dead heat with all of his Republican counterparts.This comes as a big surprise to all the Republicans that easily discounted Ford and assumed Tennessee to be under total GOP control.
News of the poll first broke on the Daily Kos when they ran the headline, "TN-Sen: We've got a top-tier race here, folks," on their front page.
Since that time, news of the poll has spread fast.
Below is some good insight and analysis from around the blogosphere regarding the newly released poll numbers which confirm Harold Ford Jr.'s surging momentum.
First, Victory06.org has the headline, "TN-Sen: Officially a horserace."
They write, "According to Rasmussen, that is.
Here is the basic summary of the poll:
Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. beats Republican moderate Bob Corker 42-36%
Ford is within three points of conservative grassroots favorite Ed Bryant, 38-41%.
Ford is within 2 points of former Congressman and gubernatorial candidate Van Hilleary 39-41%.
Most interesting is the favorable ratings:
Ford’s is the highest, at 49-38% fav/unfav
Hilleary, a statewide candidate who got 48% just three years ago, is at a meager 44-36%.
Bryant, a former Congressman, is in the best shape among Republicans at 41-32%.
Corker is in the worst shape at 36-36%. No doubt his flip flopping on abortion brings down his favorables among conservatives.
So what does all of this mean? Harold Ford, Jr. has long been thought unelectable in a statewide race by many, including the author, but it appears we may have been all wrong. As with less than eleven months to go this looks like a 40-40-20 race (each side gets 40% of solid support, and the winner will be determined btiy that swing 20%).
One thing to Ford’s advantage: He can fundraise! He outraised everyone last quarter and since he has alot of establishment support, he may be able to continue to at least break even money wise with the Republican nominee.
As for the Republican side, Corker looks weak both in the primary and the general. Hilleary is the wild card as will they nominate a previous statewide loser? The likely nominee, and favorite of conservative activists and interest groups is Ed Bryant who also seems to be the strongest Republican candidate for the general election.
Second, Our Senate has a headline reading, "TN: Competitive according to Rasmussen."
They opine, "Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the Democratic Senate candidate in Tennessee, appears to have gained ground. Earlier this year his own polls showed him in a very tough battle; now nonpartisan polls show a less negative portrait.
Rasmussen:
Rep. Harold Ford (D) - 42%
Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) - 36%
Former Rep. Ed Bryant (R) - 41%
Rep. Harold Ford (D) - 38%
Former Rep. Van Hilleary (R) - 41%
Rep. Harold Ford (D) - 39%
It is to Ford's credit that he can remain so competitive in this increasingly red state. The Republican primary has been divisive and competitive so far. It will occur relatively late, on August 3, and since Ford will probably cruise to the Democratic nod, he can focus on raising money for a tough challenge from the GOP rather than fighting for his party's nomination. A year ago I would have said Corker is the strongest Republican; now it appears that Bryant could have that distinction. He is reliably conservative, and does not have the stigma of previously losing a statewide race as Hilleary does (Hilleary lost the 2002 governor's race to Democrat Phil Bredesen). It will be interesting to see how fundraising is going on the GOP side at the end of the year. Anyhow, what looked like a good bet for the Republicans now appears to be a downright toss-up.
There was also a poll on Daily Kos Tuesday that asked the following:
Can Harold Ford win this seat?
The results were really astounding.
No. Tennessee is too red. 20%
Yes, against any of them. 71%
Yes, but only against Corker. 4%
Yes, but only against Bryant. 1%
Yes, but only against Hilleary. 2%
Congressman Ford is clearly gaining more and more support everyday.
He also has all the momentum in this race going his way.
That assertion is backed up by this poll, the Zogby tracking polls, fundraising numbers, and expert analysis.
It looks like Ford's Republican opponents and the Tennessee GOP will be having a blue Christmas this year after hearing these numbers.
Update: Save the GOP writes about the newly released poll, "First of all, I am shocked by how close this race is, definitely not good news for Republicans."
I think that is becoming the general feeling in Republican cirlces in Tennessee these days.
